Welcome back to the Stove Top weekly newsletter. As usual, each edition has a few brief stories and finishes with a mix of interesting links, hot takes, and good reads.

Enjoy.

The Costs Of Reality Vs Perception

Since my Mexican trip in December, I’ve been thinking a lot about reality vs perception. In Mexico’s case, the perception is don’t go without a bulletproof vest, while the reality is a place full of sweethearts who happen to make excellent tacos.

The reason I bring this up is because I read a great Tangle newsletter this morning discussing how Biden really hasn’t done as bad as many people think he has. Basically, a lot of people (55% of the country? maybe more?) feel somewhat similar to this guy:

As Tangle explains, this really isn’t true. I won’t rehash the whole argument, but the basics are:

• The economy is doing really well. The once impossible soft landing is either here or well within reach. Unemployment is below 4%. The S&P 500 is at record highs. The national gas price is right around $3. Eggs are around $2. The share of working-age Americans with a job is higher than at any point in the Trump years. Real wages are growing again. GDP growth is strong. And the stock market is still up-only.

• The murder rate is substantially dropping.

• He’s somehow simultaneously pushing a climate agenda while overseeing record amounts of oil production.

• He got through most of his major domestic initiatives (Infrastructure Act and Inflation Reduction Act).

• Done a lot of under-the-radar smaller shit like the CHIPS Act, thousands of pardons for marijuana possession, and having Medicare negotiate more drug prices.

Now, I don’t agree with everything Tangle said. They made a case that Biden has the deficit going in the right direction because it is much lower than in Trump’s last year ($1.7T in 2023 vs $3.1T in 2020), but that’s not much of a win considering 2020 was the COVID year. They also praise him for the forgiving of billions of dollars in student loans and for continuing support of Ukraine. I’m not a huge fan of either move. Nobody forces people to take out loans, and Biden really fucked it in Ukraine by pushing the counteroffensive over a peace deal.

But overall, he has not been a bad president. I don’t think a man his age (or anywhere near his age) should be anywhere near the Oval Office, but that’s another point for another time.

So then the question becomes why is there so much seemingly underserved negativity? The normal answer is the usual suspects. Consumer sentiment remains low due to the lingering frustration about inflation, even though people overall are pretty happy with their finances. Mainstream news networks push negative news much harder than positive news. Social media algorithmically amplifies your pre-existing echo bubble. If you already don’t like Biden, Twitter is going to make you really not like him. He’s never had Republican approval, and he’s lost a lot of leftists over his handling of Israel. And, bigger picture, no government official is particularly well-liked right now:

These are all at least decent explanations, but to me, the truth is in the sum. Our polarized electorate is now incapable of thinking for themselves. Anybody can see that their wallet is actually doing better now than before and dive into a rabbit hole of why that is. Going one level further, anybody can see everything Biden’s done. With the entirety of human knowledge at our fingertips, it’s never been easy to do your own research. But almost nobody does. Instead, they listen to their favorite Twitter personality or read mainstream news feeds like this:

A country is at its strongest when the electorate is informed and, more importantly, able to critically think. Our population now is neither, and that opens us up to all kinds of dangers. Are we really that far off from a Nazi-esque propaganda campaign from working here?

I’m not sure what the exact solution is, but I know it’ll include more independent media organizations like Tangle.

The EU AI Act Must Be Stopped

The EU AI Act is the world’s first comprehensive regulation of AI. But, because this is Europe, they also had to sneak in a concerning attack on privacy. 

In the original deal, biometric face identification systems were allowed in public spaces only under certain conditions. Basically, the po-po had to get approval from the courts and were only allowed to use it for a very specific list of crimes.

Unfortunately, these safeguards have been dropped in the bill’s latest version. Now, law enforcement can use facial recognition technology on recorded video footage without a judge’s approval and for all types of crimes. Basically, if you are walking around Europe, you are being watched by AI.

If this sounds like China, that’s because it is exactly like China. High-tech repression like this has only happened so far in China. And we know how that worked out.

The only reason widespread 1984 surveillance hasn’t happened yet is because of 1) technological limitations and 2) social norms. AI is wiping out those technological limitations, and regulators are now already working on the social norms part.

It doesn’t matter if they tell you it’s to stop child sex abuse. Or to catch the bad guys. Or to keep you safe. If we give an inch here, they will take a mile.

Just look at what’s happening to the EU.

Everything Is Downstream Of Culture

I threw this graph in at the end of last week’s extras, but I think it’s so amazing that it’s worth revisiting and talking about more in-depth.

The thought that politics is downstream of culture was popularized by Andrew Breitbart. Basically, if you want to change politics, you first have to change the culture.

I’ve long thought that this is correct. Politics and laws are really just the will of the people, codified. They change as people change. If you want to change politics or the law, all you have to do is get people on board. This is why things like activism, propaganda, and the Overton window exist.

This idea is largely why I believe the left will win in the long-run. The arc of culture bends left, so the arc of politics also bends left. Said another way, the conservatives may win some elections and some Supreme Court seats, but the left controls the media, the schools, and the entertainment industry. With so much leftism in culture, a leftward shift in politics is inevitable. And we’ve already seen this play out with the advancement of DEI. Even if they have reached a tad too far this time, on a long enough timeline, wokiesm or whatever other leftist cause will emerge victorious.

If the conservatives want to stop it, they have to find a way to reverse a historical trend that runs thousands of years deep. It’s a task so unlikely it barely even qualifies as futile.

So that’s the politics side, but this graph isn’t about politics. It’s about how culture precedes technological progress. I’ve had suspicions this is true, but I’ve never seen it as concretely demonstrated as in this graph, and that makes the following graph very concerning:

Our culture now is increasingly one of caution and worry. That is not a society that will be able to take on the challenges on the horizon, both domestically and internationally. Scared money don’t make money, as they say.

Does that mean I think we should blindly follow the accelerationist? No. But it does mean that I have a new appreciation for the rhetoric of the e/acc’ers, techno-optimists, and the Packy McCormick’s of the world. Even if they haven’t thought through all of the specifics, they are doing important work to shift the culture back toward one of swashbuckling adventure.

Extras

• Sorry Citi bankers, 20,000 of you are getting laid off.

• Not everyone is convinced striking the Houthis is the right move.

• If you’re famous, you should be trademarking your likeness ASAP.

• Graphene chips might be the future.

• If you advocate for legal immigration, you are basically advocating for no immigration.

• Brexit was such a massive mistake.

• It’s a tough time to be a first-time home buyer.

• Palantir 🤝 Israel

• Most people really have no idea how good modern technology is. Massive problems like water scarcity can now be solved.

• Wind turbines are friendlier to birds than oil and gas drilling.

• Remote workers are losing out on promotions.

• The Hindu right wing is on their cancel grind.

• Are hedge funds destroying local journalism?

• Wired is reporting that child abusers are getting better at using crypto to cover their tracks. How is that any different from plain old cash?

• According to Jeffrey Katzenberg, the co-founder of DreamWorks, AI is going to take 90% of animator jobs.

• AI can find your location from photos.

• Your washing machine is a data-sending machine.

• Austin is attempting to solve homelessness with tiny homes. It's kind of a cool idea, but to me, it still feels like treating the symptoms, not the root cause.

• Get gambling off the damn phones.

• The IMF says AI is going to affect 40% of jobs worldwide.

• North Korea now has solid-fuel hypersonic missiles.

• Contrary to common sense, kids in urban areas are actually more lonely (if they are not rich).

• Nvidia is becoming increasingly treasonous.

• Chances are you can’t afford your car.

• I’m generally a fan of defense tech, but there is a case that VCs funding makes war more likely. After all, incentives rule everything.

• The US grid battery fleet is about to double.

• The US EV market grew 29% in Q4.

• If you think an MBA still guarantees you a job, I have a bridge to sell you.

• Let’s all welcome France to the modern world. But you better not bug women to have more kids. 

• AI can now copy your handwriting. What can possibly go wrong?

• There is also now AI that can solve geometry problems at a prodigious level.

• Remote work probably doesn’t boost or detract from productivity growth.

• Multiracial Americans will be the majority by 2050.

• Hey Pakistan, welcome to the party.

• The co-founder of DeepMind has warned that AI is a “fundamentally labor replacing” tool.

• Each Facebook user is monitored by thousands of companies.

• Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is to build and open-source AGI.

• No one’s name was changed at Ellis Island.

• Field drug tests generate nearly 30,000 bogus arrests a year.

• Even your light sensor can spy on you.

Until next time, ✌️

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