Hamas's Historic Fumble

Stove Top 23: The ineffective UN, we need to win over college kids, Israel-Palestine game theory

Welcome back to the Stove Top weekly newsletter. As usual, each edition has a few brief stories and finishes with a mix of interesting links, hot takes, and good reads.

Enjoy.

The UN Was Always A Stupid Idea

I majored in Political Science with a concentration in International Relations, so I read a lot about the UN. In International Law class, we used to have to pretend we were lawyers arguing before the International Court of Justice, with the assumption being that this is the ultimate force in the world. It never made sense to me. The only reason people listen to courts now is because if there’s a cop ready to throw you in jail as soon as the verdict is rendered. So why would I let the UN tell me how to run my country when they have no way to enforce it beyond veiled threats?

Answer: I wouldn’t, and this is shown over and over again in international relations. Unless the US threatens to get involved with sanctions and/or military force, nobody cares what the UN says.

This is always a shock to those who envision a world government that can keep the peace in the world through laws, “norms”, and cooperation. It’s a nice thought, but completely impossible because of the fundamental reality that people care more about themselves than other people. The only thing keeping people from going absolutely apeshit on other people is the threat of something even worse happening to you if you do so. Basically, if the cost/benefit of stealing/killing/raping/pranking is not in your favor. For a long time, that meant going to hell. And now, it means going to jail. Stealing that bike probably isn’t worth burning for eternity or becoming somebody’s bitch in the slammer.

This is obviously magnified on the world leader scale. You don’t become the head honcho of a country by being super nice or being super good at taking orders. So, what are the things that can possibly keep them in check from going apeshit? You have 1) losing an election/starting a revolution, 2) starting a war, or 3) getting a world power involved (i.e., the US). The UN has no impact on 1 or 2, and 3 can happen regardless of UN involvement. So I ask again, why the hell would the egomaniacs in power listen to a toothless organization beyond the threat of getting the US involved? If the US doesn’t exist, the UN is as useless as the League of Nations…which died because the US wasn’t involved.

Many people in the IR community have a hard time admitting this because it shatters their worldview. There is no international utopia, the world will never be governed by a collaborative world government, and the only thing that keeps things in relative order is the might of powerful countries. So, when people bitch about the UN being unable to stop the Israel-Hamas war, I have to ask, what did you expect? For Israel to say oh no guys, some countries we have literally no business with issues a resolution with literally no consequences asking us to chill, let’s stop the bombings now? Cmon, let’s be serious. The only thing that can stop the war now is for the US to put the squeeze on Israel, or for Russia, China, and Iran to put the squeeze on Hamas. The latter isn’t happening, so it’s up to the US to put the squeeze on Israel.

Ultimately, if you want “peace” in the world, you’ll need the US to play the role of world policeman. I know that’s an uncomfortable reality for many, but it’s the only way. Laws without enforcement are just wasted ink.

The Opinions Of College Kids Matter A Lot

When the war broke out, I wanted to write something about the annoying amounts of performative activism that broke out with it. You know what I’m talking about. Every white girl in the world suddenly became a Middle Eastern historian and posted about Israel's Apartheid on Instagram.

It was the worst Instagram’s been since the height of BLM, but I didn’t really know what I wanted to say. These people don’t know what they are talking about and just blindly posting to appear down with the cause? Duh, that’s why it’s called “performative” activism. So I tabled it. But then I saw two things that finally brought me some inspiration.

One is an article from Freddie DeBoer about people discarding the woke campus politics of the 2010s as irrelevant only for it to become damn near dominant in left-wing politics. The second is a graphic on Instagram spurring people to post those annoying ass graphics because it might influence somebody else to take those positions. You can probably see where this is going.

People discount those silly stories and tweets because they seem irrelevant. It’s just some rich white girl trying to fit in, right? Wrong. It’s a hearts and mind campaign aimed at the people who will eventually run the country. If you don’t win it now, you lose massively later.

And this applies to everything. The opinions of college kids matter a fuck ton for the future. That’s why it’s super concerning when you read how comfortable college kids are with censoring free speech or government surveillance in their homes or whatever other issue we take as young people just being young. Because at some point those young people become just people, and you can’t rely on them to change their opinions.

Hamas’s True Colors

So, let’s review the situation. You have two parties who are sworn blood enemies. The only thing stopping Israel from going river to the sea is the United States. The UN is a completely ineffective mediator, and the other Arab countries couldn’t stop them even if they somehow all banded together.

Considering those facts, it is clear that the path to victory for Palestine is to cultivate sympathy in the US, as the US is the only party in the world that could possibly get Israel to concede something in this conflict.

For most of Israel’s existence, there really wasn’t much sympathy for the Palestinian cause. The country was staunchly pro-Israel. There were a lot more Joe Biden’s than AOC’s. Basically, the US population and leadership had just enough sympathy to prevent Israel from deleting the Palestinians, but not enough to really put the squeeze on for a Palestinian state.

However, that had begun to change. Young people overwhelmingly support Palestine. They support Palestine so heavily that a lot of older Americans and Jews believe they are antisemitic. Right now, that support doesn’t mean a whole lot. But in a decade or two, those young people will be the leaders of the country. The Joe Biden’s will give way to the AOC’s. All the Palestinians have to do is hold out until that happens, and it’s very likely that the tides will shift in their favor.

But we all know they didn’t do that. Instead they launched an attack that did a lot of damage but started a war they have no hope of winning. And, more importantly, they gave Israel the moral cover they needed to finish the job. October 7th was the most damaging decision that Hamas could’ve possibly made.

Ultimately, October 7th shows Hamas’s true colors. It was never about a Palestinian state. If it was, October 7th would’ve never even been a thought. Instead, it’s about killing Jews and destroying Israel.

And that’s a damn shame for the Palestinian people.

Extras

Until next time, ✌️

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